||Jeppesen, Sara Lise (Decision Modelling Group, Centre for Traffic and Transport, Technical University of Denmark, DTU, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark)
Pedersen, Erik Stilling
||At the beginning of this report the Øresund Region is defined. This area will be used as reference through out the whole report. Then the ten most important traffic related problems in Copenhagen and the Øresund Region are defined. The identified problems are ranged with the program Criterion Decision Plus according to their influence. Problems according to political inconsequence, congestion, and accidents are in this particular order estimated to be the most important parameters for the traffic flow, both in Copenhagen and in the Øresund Region. The seven remaining traffic related problems are, as the first three, thought to be of huge importance for the traffic flow.
According to the description of the traffic related problems the term “sustainability” is discussed and defined. The term is to be viewed from two different angels. One being, where all traffic at all times should be able to pass through the traffic system, at any given cost, and another where effects as environment and safety also are given as a central influence along with consideration of mobility. In this report sustainability is defined as:
“A planning method, where all implied effects are thought of, in such a way that all elements are given influence, here by, a development which takes care of all apparent needs, without preventing future generations’ possibilities for reaching their goals, are sought”.
In combination with the reflection of sustainable traffic planning and the implying of this, the regional planning is surveyed, both from a view of city planning and as a view of the traffic history. This information is compared to the present law of planning and the principle of planning levels.
We have, based on the history of planning defined three planning foundations; Need, Expectation and Possibilities. These foundations have led us to the definition of three planning methods: Traditional planning, Future studies and Visionary planning. These three planning methods are compared to the traffic development in the 20th´s century.
To be able to evaluate the results of the analysis of the present planning, the available planning tools are surveyed and listed in a matrix of planning tools. This matrix describes methods, use and some of the available program packages, according to different levels of the planning procedure. Based on this matrix the planers ability to solve the traffic related problems are evaluated.
The report “Trafik 2005” was in 1993 published by the Danish Ministry of Transportation. This report conducted a status, strategies and visions for the traffic in 1993 and until 2005. In our report the visions of “Trafik 2005” are analysed according to the two defined strategies and the three defined planning methods. The level of the visions realisation is considered, and we have found that quite a few of the implied initiatives have been realised. But those initiatives, which assumed changes in behaviour, have only in little extent been realised. This corresponds with the lack of political courage and will to make radical changes in the traffic politics. “Trafik 2005” is estimated to be a good initiative, which has not been fully implemented.
Based on the analysis of “Trafik 2005” a need for changes of the planning method has been identified, and in light of this we have deduced the method of Visionary sector oriented planning. With this method, which in principle is a checklist for planners, it is possible to accomplish sustainable planning which contains the defined claims of including all implied effects.
The planning, structure and organisational changes related to the municipal reform has been examined and an opposed amendment, witch will provide better conditions for the visionary sector oriented planning has been made. Based on this we have deduced a vision for the traffic flow in the year of 2015. The purposed visions has as well been analysed according to the two definitions of sustainable traffic strategies and the three defined planning methods. It’s seen that the vision for 2015 relies on a security and sustainability strategy, and that all three planning methods are highly used in combination. Considering the results of this analysis, we have concluded, that the vision for 2015 and the solution of the traffic related problems, are based on use of the visionary sector oriented planning method and the definition of sustainability. Using the method of visionary sector planning it is possible to incorporate all effects and based on this make decisions that not necessarily gives security and environment the highest priority.
Subsequently, we have determined the difference between the visions for respectively 2005 and 2015. By this, we have seen a severe development of the visions. The vision for 2015 has an even more solid foundation in changes of behaviour, political willingness and courage, than the visions for 2005. But the changes in behaviour are no longer thought to be accomplished only by good intentions, but they are as well based on economical stimulus. This will set high standards for decision makers and road users, and necessitate a debate of social values. We have as well put up a suggestion for how the traffic planning tools could be developed, so as to adjust them to this. The proposed solutions and the time range are founded on the basis that the process will be started right away. This is not realistic. By the use of a transitional period, it’ll be possible to obtain better solutions and results. With the analysis of this report, we have shown that the traffic related problems can be reduced and in time rectified, if the visionary sector oriented planning method is used, the policy broadly accepted among all the political parties and in the public, and therefore consequently used.