Beta 1


Title Fremtidens Sundhedsvæsen : Et scenariestudie for sundhedsvæsenet i Frederiksborg Amt
Author Corlin, Sarah Louise Blindbæk
Hansson, Kasper Bolding
Supervisor Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard (Innovationssystemer og Fremsyn, Institut for Planlægning, Innovation og Ledelse, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet, DTU, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark)
Jacobsen, Peter (Operations Management, Institut for Planlægning, Innovation og Ledelse, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet, DTU, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark)
Institution Technical University of Denmark, DTU, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Thesis level Master's thesis
Year 2006
Abstract This is the thesis for two engineer students from the Technical University of Denmark. The purpose of this project is to develop scenarios for the health sector and bring back the future to the present by making an action plan for reaching the scenarios. We limited the focus for the project to two types of deceases – diabetes and breast cancer, concerning only changes in the health sector of Frederiksborg Amt. The problem in hand is to identify the changes necessary for a future health sector, focusing simultaneously on the quality for a patient and an efficiency of the health sector. The changes are demographical, technical, structural and for deceases, accomplished by the way of living. The method developing the scenarios has five steps. Starting with first step we identified the problems concerning the health sector including the tendencies of future problems. We interviewed experts within different areas of the health sector and supplemented the findings with information from articles discussing the same topics. Thereby we entered the second step in the method by focusing even more on the problem in hand. The third step was to develop the scenarios; this was done by establishing the common assumptions for the future and the dimensions for the chosen possible futures. Statements and storylines were also established to help create the scenario stories. Step four was the backcastingprocess where we, so to say, went from the future back to the present and identified which changes necessary for scenario stories to come true; this, also including the obstacles for the changes. Then in step five we conducted the action plan from the present to the scenarios. The project focuses on to scenarios. The first one is highly privatised and the activities within the hospital are concentrated, the treatment of patients has a higher quality, because the expertise is centralised. A private driven health sector is supposed to give the system efficiency and the driving forces are more profit for the hospital and a consumerpayed system. In the other scenario the health sector is largely public but more privatised than today. The activities are spread out on five hospitals, which upholds the nearness of the health sector to the patients. Between the scenarios there are a few things that are equal. Health centres and hospices are established in order to reduce the load of the hospitals. The health centres provide systematic treatment to the patients, keeping them out of the hospital. Furthermore they are responsible for decease prevention. The hospices are a structural unit with the purpose of reducing the load of the hospitals after treatment. It is a place for rehabilitation and a nursing home on a short term basis while the patient rehabilitate. They can also be a rest home for terminal patients. Within the health sector Lean projects arises and gives the hospital a new way of approaching the patients – as a costumer. By eliminating activities, on a hospital, that do not create a value for the patient, the process of a treatment can be reduced and more efficient. This can shorten waiting lists for treatments at the hospital.
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Admin Creation date: 2009-02-09    Update date: 2011-09-27    Source: dtu    ID: 237957    Original MXD