Beta 1

Title Motorcyklister - karakteristik, eksponering, uheldsrisiko
Author Olesen, Morten Nørgaard
Supervisor Hels, Tove (Trafiksikkerhed, Institut for Transport, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet, DTU, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark)
Institution Technical University of Denmark, DTU, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Thesis level Master's thesis
Year 2009
Abstract During the last decade, the number of motorcycles in Denmark has doubled. In 2005, 17 riders of motorcycles lost their lives on the Danish road network. This number increased to 36 in 2007. This development has made headlines in the Danish press, and in the press reports it has been suggested that this development arises from an overall tendency, where an increasing number of elderly men have bought a motorcycle for pleasure rather than a means of transport. The official Danish objective is to reduce the annual number of fatalities in road traffic to 200 in 2012. While amounting for 5-6 % of injured in traffic for many years, motorcyclists amounted for almost 9 % in 2007. Thus, improvements of motorcyclists’ safety becomes more important in order to achieve the objective. The aim of this thesis is to survey the Danish motorcycle riders in order to get an understanding of the increasing number of motorcyclists’ accidents. First of all, I found that very little statistics were available. As an example, the official estimate of motorcyclists’ traffic volume is based on a survey from 1987, which simply has been adjusted by the number of registered motorcycles since then. At first, I made a survey of the age and gender distribution of motorcycle owners compared to car owners. I found, that a motorcycle owner is typically a man, and that the average age of the motorcycle owners increased significantly from 2002 to 2007. In 2002 41 % of the motorcycle owners were singles without children, while this group was reduced to 35 % by 2007. Clearly, some changes has taken place in the social characteristic of the people, who owns a motorcycle. It was also observed that motorcyclists’ age has increased remarkably, and it is noteworthy, that this increase is also seen the age of motorcyclists’ injured in traffic accidents in the same period of years. Motivated by these findings, I carried out a logistic regression analysis of the crash and injury rates described by drivers’ social characteristics in a case-control setup comparing motorcyclists to car drivers. The data used for the analysis were in microscopic scale. The estimated model found that the parameters: age, sex, education level, family type and motorcycle ownership all were significant predictors of crash involvement and injury in traffic. I found that the odds-ratios for motorcycle owners compared to car drivers significantly larger than one. While these results show that being a motorcyclist increase risk of crash involvement and injury, the model does not take amount of driving into account. Therefore, I collected a set of data from MOT-tests of motorcycles in the period 1997- 2005, in order to calculate the amount of traffic carried out by motorcycles. I found that the annual mileage of a Danish motorcycle increased from 2522 km in 1997 to 2744 km in 2004. I made a linear as well as a polynomial fit of the data in order to estimate the average mileage of a Danish motor cycle in the years 2005-07. Based on these data I was able to calculate the risk of a motorcycle rider being killed or seriously injured per 10 mio km mileage. This risk decreased with some 50 % in the period 1997-2001 but reached then a somewhat stable level. However, this stable level 4 is 38 times higher than the risk of being killed or seriously injured when driving a car when evaluated for risks found for 2003. A part of this huge difference may be related to the fact that a car driver is much more protected than a motorcycle rider in the event of an accident. However, there may also be differences in the way people drive cars and motorcycles. Therefore data from speed measurements from eight locations on the major Danish roads were analysed. The eight locations are distributed on different kinds of roads and register the type of vehicle and the speed of the vehicle. At all eight locations motorcycles had a higher speed than cars, and indeed the share of motorcyclists violating the speed limits were much higher than the share of cars. Hence, I concluded that motorcycle riders behave in a more risky way than car drivers.
Imprint Danmarks Tekniske Universitet (DTU) : Kgs. Lyngby, Danmark
Pages 70
Keywords Motorcyklister; Uheldsrisiko
Admin Creation date: 2009-05-14    Update date: 2009-11-04    Source: dtu    ID: 242851    Original MXD