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Title Wind Power Integration in New Zealand : a scenario analysis of 15-25 % wind power in the electricity market in 2025
Author Rasmussen, Iben Moll
Windolf, Mikkel Haugaard
Supervisor Elmegaard, Brian (Thermal Energy Systems, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, DTU, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark)
Clausen, Niels-Erik (Wind Energy Division, Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Technical University of Denmark, DTU, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark)
Hindsberger, Magnus (Transpower New Zealand ltd.)
Institution Technical University of Denmark, DTU, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Thesis level Master's thesis
Year 2008
Abstract This study is a scenario analysis of the consequences wind power will have on the electricity market and system in New Zealand up until 2025. For this purpose four scenarios have been developed and analysed using the Plexos software. New Zealand is located in the South Pacific approximately 1500 km east of Australia and its electricity system is based mainly on hydro generation. However there are large potentials for wind power here and typical wind farms should be able to achieve annual average capacity factors of 40 to 45 % which is very high and comparable to some of the best wind sites in the world. Despite of the large potential for wind power it is still a relatively new generation type in New Zealand and currently only 231 MW are installed. As a basis for the analysis wind power time series have to be developed. This is done by using publicly available wind speed measurements. However these measured wind speed time series have to be manipulated to represent the wind power output in the different regions of New Zea-land. This is done by finding a smoothing effect of wind along with a method to transform the 10-meter wind speeds to represent the typical wind power output in a wind farm. The method developed is validated against measured wind farm output and is assessed to be adequate for use in a market analysis. The introduction of wind power will lead to an increase in reserve needs in the system to cover the unpredictability of wind power. For this study the forecast error is calculated by using typical forecast performances from the Danish electricity system. These forecast errors are much smaller than if a persistence forecast is used, which is the common way of calculating reserve needs in New Zealand. The benefit of using the more accurate forecast is significant and the cost of reserves is reduced to 10 to 15 % of what the persistence forecast. The location of wind farms have been investigated by analysing two scenarios with the same amount of installed wind power capacity but where one scenario has all wind power located in three main locations and the other one having a much more disperse location of the wind power. By dispersing the wind power geographically the overall performance of the system will improve. The location of the wind power has impact on the costs wind power will introduce in the system. A compact development of wind power will in general lead to; higher transmission losses, an increase in transmission constraints for a range of lines including the backbone lines in the North Island, higher wind spill due to very low prices and an increase in reserve costs. A simple socioeconomic analysis is performed for each scenario. In general wind power has positive socioeconomic impact for New Zealand. The scenarios with approximately 15 % of electricity generated by wind power in 2025 will yield a total socioeconomic benefit of 560 to 610 million $, NPV 2010, during the scenario horizon. Furthermore a scenario generating 25 % of the electricity from wind power in 2025 has been analysed. This scenario yields a significantly higher socioeconomic benefit in 2025 and thereby implies that even more wind power could generate more socioeconomic benefit for New Zealand. However this result is quite sensitive to changes in the cost of wind turbines and also introduces significant strains on the transmission network so the viability of this scenario has to be investigated further. The incentives for wind power have been analysed and are found inadequate in all scenarios except the low wind Reference scenario. This means that the development of wind power to a level of more than 10 % of the electricity in 2025 will be dependent on a subsidy scheme. This however has no influence on the socioeconomic analysis but the cost of the scheme would have to be paid by the consumers. However, even if consumers are to pay the subsidy the prices will still be lower in the scenarios with larger penetration of wind power than in the Reference scenario. Wind power will therefore be attractive to both New Zealand and the consumers. The cost of the subsidy scheme can however be significantly reduced if a disperse development of wind power is achieved. For the future energy system of New Zealand an interesting technology is the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle that might become available. These vehicles are an interesting type of consumers in the system as they are most willing to charge their batteries when the price of electricity is low. These electric vehicles impact on the system performance are analysed for each of the scenario and in general they have a positive effect as they will tend to take up energy from the grid when this is available. By doing this the vehicles will raise the minimum price in the system and thereby contribute significantly to the incentives for wind power. The economy for these plug-in hybrid electric vehicles is dependent of the saving they are able to generate for the owner. The annual savings compared with running on petrol is found to be 350-550 $, which is estimated to be quite low considering that a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle would probably have a higher investment cost. Furthermore the vehicles ability to deliver reserves to the system has been simulated. This will generate a marginal economic income for the owner but this is assessed not to be very attractive in New Zealand. Furthermore concerns are also raised whether the system can rely on PHEV’s to generate most of the reserves needed in the system and a more technical study is needed to verify if this is a viable solution. In general wind power is in this study found to be an attractive generation source for New Zea-land because it will generate socioeconomic benefits compared with having more thermal gen-eration and that prices for consumers will be lower which could benefit the competitive position of New Zealand. Generating at least 15 % of electricity from wind power in 2025 can to a large extend be achieved without further changes in the transmission system, other than those that are to be implemented anyway, but this will require that the wind power is developed in a geo-graphical disperse way and that a subsidy scheme is in place for wind power.
Imprint Technical University of Denmark (DTU) : Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Fulltext
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Admin Creation date: 2009-11-05    Update date: 2010-10-28    Source: dtu    ID: 252020    Original MXD