||Metode til omkostningsberegning af industriel drivhusgasreduktion
||Nielsen, Simon Juul
||Qvale, Einar Bjørn (Institut for Mekanisk Teknologi, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet, DTU, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark)
Elmegaard, Brian (Termiske Energisystemer, Institut for Mekanisk Teknologi, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet, DTU, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark)
Wenzel, Henrik (Institut for Planlægning, Innovation og Ledelse, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet, DTU, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark)
||Technical University of Denmark, DTU, DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
||The starting point of this master thesis is the EU’s ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and the EU burden sharing agreement between the member states. The Kyoto Protocol covers six types of green house gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6. CO2 is considered to be the main gas as it is emitted on a large scale when burning fossil fuels. A large amount of the Danish energy generation comes from burning fossil fuels, consequently energy saving will often lead to reductions of CO2 emissions and on a smaller scale also reductions of other green house gases.
As a whole the 15 EU member states have committed themselves to a reduction of their combined green house gas emissions by 8 per cent compared to the levels in 1990. Under the burden sharing agreement, Denmark has committed itself to a reduction of 21 per cent. This is a relatively large reduction and, therefore, it is expected that it will lead to great economic costs for Denmark. The Danish government wants to find the most economical feasible ways of reaching the 21 per cent reduction. The purpose of this master thesis is to establish a general method for the cost estimation of measures used in order to reduce green house gases in the Danish industrial companies.
The Danish industrial companies are contributing to national emissions of green house gases by burning fossil fuels in boilers and in industrial combined heat plants. But as CO2 is the dominant green house gas when burning fossil fuels (more than 98 % of the total green house gas emissions), it will only be this green house gas that will be dealt with in depth in this master thesis. The other green house gases are emitted from i.e. farming and waste disposal sites.
In 2001 the emission of CO2 in Denmark was 53.8 Mt-CO2 and the Danish industry contributed by only 14.3%, however, including the Danish industry as end user of electricity and district heat will raise its share to 29.2 per cent. This is the reason for including consumption by end use as part of the measures for reducing CO2 emissions.
According to expectations, national CO2 reductions will not necessarily take place within the borders of each member state but also by way of trading CO2-quotas bilaterally. In continuation of the EU burden sharing agreement, the EU is working on schemes concerning buying and selling of CO2-quotas. The Danish Government has postulated that the price of buying CO2-quotas abroad will be 120 DKK/t-CO2, thus indicating that it will not be economical to make reductions nationally if these reductions exceed the above-mentioned price. In order to compare the different measures, a method for the calculation of the economic cost-efficiency of CO2 savings has been prepared for the Government.
Based on this method, the master thesis presents a general method for the calculation of cost-effective of measures for saving CO2 within the Danish industry, which actually means measures that includes energy savings or changing to cleaner alternative fuels. The method can be used for the estimation of savings concerning electricity consumption and heat consumption. The method uses the existing process as a starting point, in which either the entire process or parts of the process are altered and thus a way of saving CO2 is achieved.
The method is divided into seven parts. The first five parts serve as an examination of the necessary inputs needed in order for carrying out the actual calculation of the cost-efficiency. The fundamental inputs are energy consumption, energy price and CO2 emission in the current situation and also the expected equivalent values related to carrying out a measure. The values serve as inputs for part 6, which is the actual calculation of the cost-efficiency. For the calculation additional information is required regarding the investments in measures and the altered yearly costs/savings related to the measure. In addition an estimate for the life of the measure in question is required. The output from part 6 is the cost which is related to savings for one metric tonne of CO2, the so-called CO2 price (DKK/t-CO2)
The actual calculation of the CO2 prices is based on the Government’s economic method, in which an additional economic calculation of the CO2 price has been made. In addition, a simple calculation has been included in order to show the cost for society by investments in measures that the Danish industry at first will not carry out due to too long payback period.
In 1997 the energy consumption in the Danish business sector was mapped within a number of process categories and fuels/energy sources (electricity and district heat). The data were organized into business sectors in a mapping database. By means of knowledge about CO2 volume per energy content for the used fuels, it has been possible to produce a survey of CO2 emission divided into business sectors within the number of process categories. Part 7 includes a method for the estimation of the total potentials in Danish industry; this part is, to a large degree, based on the data from the mapping database.
In order for demonstrating the method, a model for calculating CO2 prices for any CO2 cost-effective measure has been made, however, provided that the inputs described in the method is available The model has served as a list of CO2 prices including an estimation of the total potentials for theoretical as also concrete examples. The model has also been used for verification of the model inputs by means of a sensitivity analysis.
||Technical University of Denmark (DTU) : Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
Creation date: 2009-11-05
Update date: 2010-10-28